Boise Property Management Blog

Your Gift Horse Has Been Delivered!

System - Friday, March 29, 2019

On 3/22/19 the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, which sets short-term interest rates, declined to raise rates.  Further, it appears the Fed’s current disposition is to not raise rates in the near-term.  


NYT 3/20/19:Forecasts released at the end of the two-day meeting show the typical member of the Federal Open Market Committee now expects not to raise rates at all this year, an abrupt halt to what had been five consecutive quarters of rate increases to the current range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent. Most officials now expect a single rate increase in 2020 and none in 2021. In December, when forecasts were last released, Fed officials said they expected two rate increases this year and another in 2020.


Long-term rates are influenced by, but not directly set by, the Fed.  That influence is currently weak.  The Yield Curve (US bonds with maturities of 12 months or less vs bonds with long maturities, e.g. 10 yrs) is Inverted, i.e., Yields on short Treasury bonds are higher than Yields on the 10 Yr Treasury bond.  While an Inverted Yield Curve is seen by many as a harbinger of recession, one can live in the moment and enjoy the benefits of low long-term interest rates.


Last November the 10 Yr Treasury bond yield hit a six year high of 3.24%.  Since then it has declined 80 basis points to 2.44% on 3/22/19.  See chart below.